by ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in person in Alaska for a crucial summit that could decide not only the course of the conflict in Ukraine but also the future of European security.
Trump has the opportunity to demonstrate to the world during the sit-down that he is a skilled negotiator and an international peacemaker. He used to brag that he could swiftly find a solution to end the slaughter, but he and his allies have portrayed him as a formidable negotiator who can do so.
Putin sees a long-awaited chance to try to strike a deal with Trump that would solidify Russia’s gains, thwart Kyiv’s attempt to join NATO, and ultimately reintegrate Ukraine into Moscow’s circle.
For Trump, the stakes are high. The president is providing Putin with the approval he seeks after he was shunned after his invasion of Ukraine three and a half years ago by allowing him to enter the United States. In addition to dealing a serious damage to the West’s strategy of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” the withdrawal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from the summit raises the prospect that Trump would accept a settlement that Ukraine does not desire.
Any victory is far from certain, particularly as Russia and Ukraine’s demands for peace are still very different. Any short-term ceasefire has long been opposed by Putin, who has associated it with a freeze on Ukraine’s mobilization efforts and a halt in Western weaponry supplies—conditions that Kyiv and its Western allies have refused.
On Thursday, Trump stated that there was a 25% chance that the summit would fail, but he also hinted that if it did, he may invite Zelenskyy to Alaska for a follow-up three-way meeting—a option that Russia has not accepted.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters in Anchorage that Russia never makes preparations in advance when they questioned him about Trump’s assessment of a 25% possibility of failure.
We are aware that we have points of contention and a comprehensible stance. In a video that was uploaded to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Telegram account, he declared, “We will state it.”
In an interview with Fox News on Thursday, Trump stated that he wanted a comprehensive peace agreement completed as soon as possible, but he was unsure if they would receive an instant ceasefire. That seems to support Putin’s long-standing claim that Russia prefers a comprehensive agreement to end the conflict that reflects its demands rather than a short-term cessation of hostilities.
According to the Kremlin, Trump and Putin will first have a private conversation before the two delegations meet and continue their conversation over a working breakfast. After then, a combined press conference is anticipated.
Trump has offered shifting explanations for his meeting goals
Trump called the summit, which is scheduled to take place at a military facility close to Anchorage, “really a feel-out meeting” in the days before it took place. However, he has also stated that although Putin may intimidate other leaders, he will not play around with me and threatened to have very serious repercussions for Russia if he does not agree to end the war.
Some people are doubtful about the type of agreement that can be struck because of Trump’s contentious past with Putin and his repeated claims that a settlement would probably involve some territory exchanging, which disappointed Ukraine and European allies.
Retired career foreign service officer Ian Kelly, who was the U.S. ambassador to Georgia under the Obama and early Trump administrations, stated that he sees only a positive outcome for Putin and no benefit for the United States.
According to Kelly, the worst scenario is that Putin lures Trump into increasing pressure on Zelenskyy, and the best scenario is nothing.
There is a significant chance that a high-level conference put together so hastily may result in blown expectations or misunderstandings, according to George Beebe, the former director of the CIA’s Russia analysis division and current member of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
But unless there has been enough work done behind the scenes for President Trump to feel that there is a good likelihood that something tangible will come out of it, I doubt he would be entering a meeting like this, Beebe added.
Zelenskyy has often questioned Putin’s desire to engage in sincere negotiations. In their increasingly frantic discussions with U.S. leaders over the past week, his European allies have emphasized the importance of Ukraine’s participation in any peace negotiations.
Meanwhile, Moscow’s political pundits have enjoyed the fact that Ukraine and its European allies are left out of the conference.
A pro-Kremlin speaker, Dmitry Suslov, said he hoped the meeting would strengthen a transatlantic rift and make Europe less of Russia’s most formidable adversary.
The summit could have far-reaching implications
According to Russian state news agency Interfax, Putin arrived at Magadan in Russia’s Far East on Thursday while traveling to Anchorage.
The tour will feature discussions with the regional governor and excursions at numerous important locations, including a stop to lay flowers at a WWII-era memorial honoring Soviet-American aviation cooperation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Foreign nations will be keenly observing Trump’s response to Putin in order to assess the potential implications of the exchange for their own interactions with the U.S. president, who has abandoned traditional diplomacy in favor of his own transactional approach to relationships.
The conference takes place while the battle has depleted resources and resulted in significant losses for both sides.
Since the February 2022 invasion, Ukraine has resisted far longer than some had anticipated. However, it is struggling to repel Russia’s considerably larger army, battling for every inch on the more than 600-mile (1,000-kilometer) front line while dealing with bombardments of its cities.
U.S. adversaries like China, Iran, and North Korea will be observing Trump’s posture to determine whether or not the threats he keeps making against Putin are legitimate, according to Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
Or, as has been his history, he keeps reversing course and seeking methods to avoid the pressure and threats he has pledged to use, according to Kendall-Taylor, a former senior intelligence official.
Trump has stated that he believes it was very respectful of Putin to visit the United States rather than meet in Russia, despite some people objecting to the summit’s location.
Pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov, who is based in Moscow, noted that the decision to hold the summit in Alaska highlighted the distance from Europe and Ukraine.
The leaders can meet more safely and avoid protests because they are on a military post, yet the site has special meaning due to its location and history.
Only 3 miles (less than 5 kilometers) and the international date line divide Alaska, which the United States bought from Russia in 1867, from Russia at its closest point.
During the Cold War, Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson was essential to the fight against the Soviet Union. It still has an impact today, as the base’s jets continue to intercept Russian planes that frequently enter American territory.
