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This week’s trip to South Carolina for some schmoozing with local leaders and picture ops with regular people should allay any remaining reservations about Gavin Newsom’s potential 2028 presidential campaign.
At the request of then-President Joe Biden, the Democratic Party named South Carolina as the first state to host a presidential primary in 2024, despite the state’s strong Republican leanings. In 2028, it might reprise that function.
It is therefore not surprising that Democratic lawmakers who consider themselves as possible contenders are looking for excuses to travel to the state. Newsom’s reasoning is that he wants to know how South Carolinians are being impacted by cuts to federal health care programs.
Newsom has undoubtedly been gaining national attention since winning his second and last term as governor three years ago, despite maintaining that he had no plans to run for president.
But it didn’t seem plausible that he would just step down from politics when his governorship ended and go back to managing his wine and hotel company after spending half of his 57 years moving up the political ladder one rung at a time.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal last month, Newsom recognized the prospect of a 2028 run, stating, “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.” His trip to South Carolina this week demonstrates that he is moving in that direction.
Would Newsom succeed?
The door was opened for all Democratic candidates when Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump last year. After losing both the presidency and control of both chambers of Congress, the party is currently experiencing a post-election upheaval.
Although there is a feeling that the country’s citizens are not buying what the party has been offering, there is no agreement on how to adapt it to appeal to disgruntled voting blocs or a strong leader to guide the transition.
Although Newsom has been outspoken in his criticism of the party’s inability to appeal to blue-collar voters, especially young men, he has not yet offered a substitute strategy. To the chagrin of environmentalists, proponents of homosexual and transgender rights, and other left-leaning organizations, he has also been gradually moving away from his prior reputation as a California progressive.
Newsom can position himself as someone who could unite a coalition of voter blocs capable of defeating the 2028 Republican candidate, most likely Vice President JD Vance at this early stage, because there isn’t a clear leader in what could be a crowded field of Democratic candidates.
Despite having barely double-digit support, early polls does rank Newsom among the top tier of possible Democratic contenders. However, there are many obstacles in Newsom’s way of winning the Democratic candidacy or, at the very least, the presidency, starting with the fact that he is unavoidably from California.
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The state’s reputation today is very different from that of the land of opportunity and sunlight it previously possessed. Its self-designation as a sanctuary for undocumented immigrants, its filthy homeless encampments in the state’s main cities, and its ongoing housing scarcity are all powerful campaign points for Newsom’s opponents and, should he win the nomination, his Republican opponent.
Additionally, Newsom is perceived by many as being smooth and glib rather than genuine, someone who manipulates reality to present himself and California as role models. Newsom will need to convince South Carolinians and other people across that his eight years as California’s governor have earned him a promotion to the highest position if he hopes to gain their support.
It won’t be simple.
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